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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Beatles Rock Band Will Be "Outsold 2-to-1"

That's what this EEDAR analyst had to say:

Divnich says he expects Activison to ring up sales in the order of 3 million GH5 units across all platforms, compared to a projected 1.7 million for The Beatles: Rock Band. "I believe that at the end of the day, it comes down to marketing muscle, and Activision has proven in numerous showdowns that they can out advertise and out promote their competitor," he tells Joystiq. "If Activision relaxes on the marketing spend, while MTV Games kicks it up a notch, there's certainly a chance that I could be wrong."

There's another scenario in which this year's Rock Band could prove more of a contender. "The only concern I have with my Guitar Hero vs. Rock Band analysis is that Activision may focus less on marketing Guitar Hero 5 and divert funding to DJ Hero, a new brand in their Guitar Hero line-up," EEDAR's chief number man admits. "That would certainly change the game."

No matter what, Divnich doesn't see a very-worst-case scenario playing out for MTV Games and Harmonix, assuring us that "[The Beatles: Rock Band] will outsell Rock Band 2 this holiday season."

It might happen.  It might.  However, as anyone can tell you, slap "The Beatles" on anything and it will sell.  I think analysts are underestimating two things:  Rock Band works extremely well with Wii owners, and the majority of Wii owners are these so-called "casual" gamers that are put off by the difficulty levels of games like Guitar Hero.  They're more than likely more familiar with The Beatles than, say, Muse.  I think some of these analysts are going to find themselves unpleasantly surprised, but then again, what do I know?  I just play the games.