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Friday, January 15, 2010

Let's See How Well They Did: Dec 2009 (NPD Predictions)

What use are predictions if we can't analyze them afterwards? First, here were the predictions from Michael Pachter and EEDAR for the month of December:

Pachter

Wii- 3,200,000
PS3 - 1,400,000
Xbox 360 - 1,350,000
PS2 - 350,000
PSP - 650,000
DS - 2,450,000

EEDAR

Wii - 3,000,000
PS3 - 1,450,000
Xbox 360 - 1,490,000
PS2 - 350,000
PSP - 350,000
DS - 2,800,000

Here were the final numbers from NPD:

Wii - 3,810,000
PlayStation 3 - 1,360,000
Xbox 360 - 1,310,000
PlayStation 2 - 333,2000
PSP - 654,700
Nintendo DS - 3,310,000

What can we discern from this? First, PACHTER IS A WIZARD. He called most of the squishy middle. Second, everyone underestimated the sales of the Wii and DS again. I think they did it because these numbers
trump 2008's numbers, and they assumed that there was no way they could beat the 2008 numbers in such a down economy. They were wrong.This month's winner: Pachter. We'll keep tracking this, because it's
important to know who to trust in this industry.